Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while his coach berated him over not reading a through-ball. During that period, as the club went six without a win, the question was if his performances were a symptom or the source of the side's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the sideline response proved to be much more joyous. As the in-form star drilled in his second strike to reinstate the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Legitimate Challengers?
This is a rather hard proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, despite the fact the victories have accumulated.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the side posted an expected goals figure notably superior than the other team. For a club who have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa look strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping Rogers to bail them out with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again against the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced right inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. Against United, the opponents had more efforts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival the club must confront in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Maybe there exists another reality where, rather than outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- Ollie Watkins could start finding the net regularly.
- The winger could transform into the force he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, bolstering a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a title charge while looking like a crucial England player.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero positioned himself before the home supporters after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
